WeatherDale vs. Ol' Notch, Episode 9

Do Cold Fronts Move Bucks?

Not much that the data can show. In Oklahoma, weather trends showed up in only 8 of 80 movement models, and in Pennsylvania rut movement had no relationship with daily highs and lows. When Penn State checked one cold front, the researcher said they'd likely need a lot more data to tease out any effect.

Aired Oct 26, 20263 research cards, each with its limits 2 min read
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Still from Dale vs. Ol' Notch, Episode 9
8 of 80
Oklahoma models where weather showed a trend
Webb et al. 2010
32
GPS-collared deer in the Oklahoma study
Webb et al. 2010
No relationship
PA rut movement vs. daily highs and lows
Diefenbach 2025

01What the research found

RECEIPT
The study

Oklahoma: 32 GPS deer and the weather

WhereNoble Foundation property, southern OklahomaSample17 does and 15 bucks, GPSWhen7 years, 3 seasons
What they did

Ran GPS collar data (130,098 locations) against air temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, relative humidity and rain.

What they found
  • Movement trends tied to weather showed up in only 8 of 80 models (10%).
  • Temperature was the factor in 5 of those 8. Rain, humidity and wind speed were each the factor in 1.
  • The authors: daily weather has "minimal impact on movements of white-tailed deer in southern latitudes."
  • They said deer from northern latitudes, with more extreme weather, may be more affected.
Limits
  • Southern deer on one property. North may differ.
  • Wind direction wasn't tested.
Source. Webb, Gee, Strickland, Demarais and DeYoung. 2010. "Measuring Fine-Scale White-Tailed Deer Movements and Environmental Influences Using GPS Collars." International Journal of Ecology 2010: 459610. dlc.dlib.indiana.edu → doaj.org →
RECEIPT
The study

Pennsylvania: rut movement and temperature

WherePennsylvaniaSample97,979 buck locationsWhen2013-2023
What they did

Compared how much more or less than average bucks moved in the rut with the daily high temperature, and at night with the daily low.

What they found
  • "Statistically there is no relationship" between movement and the daily high.
  • At night, "once again, no relationship."
Limits
  • A research blog analysis, not a formal paper.
  • The number of bucks isn't given.
  • It tested temperature only, not fronts or air pressure.
Source. Diefenbach, D. "The Heat Is On..." Penn State Deer-Forest Study blog, Jan 6, 2025. deer.psu.edu →
RECEIPT
The study

Pennsylvania: one cold front

WherePennsylvaniaSampleCollared bucksWhenFront of Oct 7, 2023
What they did

Looked at buck movement around one fall cold front.

What they found
  • "From one deer to the next there is huge variability in their movements."
  • The researcher: "Deer may respond to cold fronts but we likely would need a lot more data to tease out any effect."
Limits
  • One front.
  • A research blog post, not a paper.
Source. Diefenbach, D. "Cold Wet Winds of Change-The Verdict." Penn State Deer-Forest Study blog, Oct 25, 2023. deer.psu.edu →

02My read

MY READMy tactic, not a study result

In November I don't wait on fronts. I hunt the calendar.

That's how I hunt it, not something these studies tested.

03Field notes

  1. Don't stay home waiting on a cold front. The data above doesn't show weather driving much movement.
  2. In November, hunt the calendar.
  3. Check your own state's season dates and legal hours with your state wildlife agency.

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